Conjuncture: growth of 0.8% expected in the fourth quarter of 2016

A growth of 0.8% is expected in the fourth quarter of 2016. Affirmed the High commission for Planning (HCP) in its point of October 2016 on the economic state of our country. Compared with the last year’s rate for the same period (5.1%), it is clear that growth is slowing. According to the HCP,it is the collapse of the agricultural added value by 12.4%.
Indeed, HCP said that “the pace of national economic growth should experience a slight downturn in the fourth quarter of 2016, reflecting a decline of 12.4% of the agricultural added value, compared to the same period last year “. The deficit in the rainfall combined with high temperatures experienced by Morocco will have negative impacts on the agricultural sector this year; mainly autumn crops such as citrus and primeurs.
Also according HCP, the growth rate of the non-agricultural sector is expected to reach 2% in canceled slide. By cons, the industrial value recorded 2.1%.
“Mining activities would experience on their side also a moderate growth, due to unfavorable external demand,” notes HCP.
Furthermore, the service sector would contribute half to non-agricultural growth.
In terms of overall growth, HCP indicates that world demand in Morocco in annual slip would be 2.8% in Q3 and 2.6% in the fourth. Rates that are not at all high. However, as indicated by HCP, market conditions will continue to “favor certain industrial sectors such as automotive and aerospace.”

The stock market on an upward trend
“The stock market would have continued its upward trajectory in the third quarter 2016, a stark departure from the trend of the beginning of the year. The MASI and MADEX index would have increased by 10% and 10.3% respectively in annual slide, after declines of 0.8% and 0.9% a quarter earlier. The market capitalization would have appreciated, evolving from a decline of 2% to an increase of 10.7%, between the two successive quarters. These performances were attributable mainly to the increase in stock prices of real estate sectors, electricity and transportation. Meanwhile, the stock market would have recorded an improvement in trade, although equity investors have continued to act with prudence and caution. Thus the trading volume would have increased by 73.1%, in annual variation, “indicates HCP